Sunday, November 20, 2011

Nuclear Power Station Accident, Tsunami... No longer Improbable

When I went through a few chapters of "Catastrophe, Injury, Insurance: The Impact of Catastrophes on Workers Compensation, Life, and Health Insurance" published by Risk Management Solutions (RMS) in 2006, two paragraph about nuclear power stations and tsunami caught my attention - the first paragraph commented the chances of a major radioactivity release from the nuclear power station:
Scenarios that fall into these plausible mass casualty events but are improbable include a large-scale accidental release of radioactivity from a nuclear power station. Estimates suggest that such an event could affect several million people and make many hundreds of thousands sick. Operating safety standards for nuclear power stations require that the chances of a major radioactivity release are maintained at below 1 in 10,000.
The second paragraph commented large-scale tidal waves:
A tsunami or coastal tidal wave affecting a major stretch of coastline on either the Atlantic seaboard or the Pacific coast could be destructive and deadly for populations living along the coast. Large-scale tidal waves could potentially be caused by an ocean floor earthquake, a submarine landslide, or a meteorite in mid-ocean, but estimates of the return periods of these types of events are measured in many thousands of years.
Sometimes we take it easy for the events with low possibilities, by presuming like it will not happen - low possibilities do not mean that the event will not happen (the tail effect)... Japan just suffered massive earthquake and tsunami at the beginning of 2011.

I really hope the Lynas' Advanced Materials Plant project in Kuantan, Malaysia  will be called off - no matter how well the operating safaty standards are followed, there is still non-zero possibility for accident of radioactivity release - it will be already TOO late when the accident happens, and the price to be paid will be extremely large...

One Asia Rare Earth tragedy in Bukit Merah already taught Malaysia enough lesson.

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