My Actuarial Working Life

In my last post , we discussed the importance of avoiding “black box” Prophet models—models so complex and opaque that users struggle to understand the underlying calculations and dependencies. Without clarity, these models can lead to errors, inefficiencies, and unwelcome surprises when something goes wrong. Today, let’s shift our focus to another characteristic of a "good" Prophet model: keeping redundancy low . Let's make the idea simple, redundancy in a Prophet model refers to variables in the model’s library that aren’t actually used in any products within the workspace. If a Prophet model has high redundancy, this means it has thousands of variables available but only a fraction actively contributing to the calculations. 

If you're working in the valuation team of a life insurance company, chances are you've spent a lot of time with Prophet. It’s that powerful tool we use for things like cash flow projections and calculating reserves. But here's the thing—how often do you really stop to think about whether the Prophet model you're using is a 'GOOD' Prophet model ?

In my last post and debut podcast, I talked about why strong foundations matter for coming up with smart, workable solutions in business. But, there's a twist when we hit a problem that's completely new to us: just having that solid base isn't always enough. This brings me to a story I love to share with my team and my training participants, about how Henry Ford had a lightbulb moment that changed cars forever. Did you know he got the idea to build cars faster and cheaper by watching how meatpacking plants worked? They had this assembly line where everyone did one job, moving the product along quickly. Ford thought, "Why not do this with cars?" And just like that, in 1913, he changed the game by setting up an assembly line at his car plant in Michigan.

After completing the actuarial modelling class on Tuesday, I had a short but fruitful conversation with my team member, Koh Ying, at the lift lobby. As this was a developer course, Koh Ying came over to support the training and provided guidance to the participants when they encountered challenges in the class exercise. Well, the topic we discussed might seem a bit dry, but it is important to our work - yes, we discussed why we should learn the fundamentals/concepts, or which I usually call "theory".