My Actuarial Working Life

If you're working in the valuation team of a life insurance company, chances are you've spent a lot of time with Prophet. It’s that powerful tool we use for things like cash flow projections and calculating reserves. But here's the thing—how often do you really stop to think about whether the Prophet model you're using is a 'GOOD' Prophet model ?

In my last post and debut podcast, I talked about why strong foundations matter for coming up with smart, workable solutions in business. But, there's a twist when we hit a problem that's completely new to us: just having that solid base isn't always enough. This brings me to a story I love to share with my team and my training participants, about how Henry Ford had a lightbulb moment that changed cars forever. Did you know he got the idea to build cars faster and cheaper by watching how meatpacking plants worked? They had this assembly line where everyone did one job, moving the product along quickly. Ford thought, "Why not do this with cars?" And just like that, in 1913, he changed the game by setting up an assembly line at his car plant in Michigan.

After completing the actuarial modelling class on Tuesday, I had a short but fruitful conversation with my team member, Koh Ying, at the lift lobby. As this was a developer course, Koh Ying came over to support the training and provided guidance to the participants when they encountered challenges in the class exercise. Well, the topic we discussed might seem a bit dry, but it is important to our work - yes, we discussed why we should learn the fundamentals/concepts, or which I usually call "theory".

One of my favorite functionalities in Prophet is "parameterized extended formula". Although this technical term sounds a bit complex, the concept is in fact pretty straight forward - we can just relate to something we learned in the secondary school, i.e. "f(x)" (functions). How parameterized extended formulas work is similar to self-defined function in Excel VBA. Say we have a function with multiple elements, e.g. f(x, y, z). When we input x = 2, y = 3 and z = 4 to this function, we may get a value of 10 directly. The same function can be used for different combinations of x, y and z - i.e. we can REUSE the function and make our calculation models more efficient. We can use parameterized extended formulas for various areas, such as converting annual decrement rates to monthly rates. Instead of replicating similar formulas for death, TPD and CI separately, we can create a parameterized extended formula that can be used for death, TPD and CI at the same time: Create

Sharing is always a good thing. By sharing the knowledge I have, apart from providing others some ideas on how to improve their daily work or resolve the problems they encounter, I can still benefit from the sharing. Through writing posts in LinkedIn, I strengthen my knowledge and concepts, as well as gaining some inputs and view from other connections in my network. For better records, I also put down my sharing under this blog, so that it is easier to be referred if needed.   Thought (1): Debugger License - Get it if you have the budget If you have additional budgets on Prophet licensing, I would suggest to get the Debugger license (yes, it needs a separate licensing). When you encounter errors in your Prophet runs, AND Prophet cannot display its run log (i.e. errors in both doing runs and displaying run logs at the same time) , Debugger will save your life (otherwise it may very tough to find out what the issue is). If I can suggest enhancements on Prophet, I think it will be great

In my previous post, I have discussed areas that you may consider in setting up input variables . Before I proceed my discussion on core variables, I would think that it is good for use to take a look on indicators - as indicators play an important role in setting core variables with various formulas (known as "variable definitions" in a Prophet model).  The funny thing about indicators is: it DOES NOT carry any formulas that you need to use in calculating a variable! Basically, they are just some texts that you can combine using different logical operators (AND, OR, NOT), such as "ORD_PAR AND SING_PREM" for a single premium ordinary participating product.